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No War, No Peace? Lecture on the South Caucasus by Dr. Zinaida Bechná at the University of Helsinki
On August 12, 2025, Dr. Zinaida Bechná delivered a lecture at the University of Helsinki entitled “No War, No Peace? Rethinking Power, Violence, and the Prospects for Peace in the South Caucasus”. Her talk explored the geopolitical significance of the region, current tensions, and possible paths towards sustainable peace.
On August 12, 2025, Dr. Zinaida Bechná (Masaryk University, Principal Investigator of the CENTREPEACE project) gave a guest lecture at the University of Helsinki titled “No War, No Peace? Rethinking Power, Violence, and the Prospects for Peace in the South Caucasus.”
She began by introducing the CENTREPEACE project, its goals, and its focus on fostering research excellence and collaboration across Europe. The lecture then examined what it means to live in a situation where there is neither open war nor genuine peace in the South Caucasus, and how the war in Ukraine has reshaped the region’s security landscape. Dr. Bechná also discussed the importance of political leadership and diplomacy in moving from stalemate towards conditional or sustainable peace.
In the first part, she outlined why the South Caucasus is a key geopolitical knot, presenting four main reasons:
- Energy security – pipelines transport Caspian oil and gas to Europe, bypassing Russia.
- Trade routes – the “Middle Corridor” connects China and Central Asia with Europe.
- Security buffer – instability impacts NATO’s southeastern flank and the Black Sea.
- Normative stakes – the EU’s credibility as a geopolitical actor is tested in this region.
She also described five interlocking dynamics fueling tensions, including traditional rivalries (Russia, Turkey, Iran), the East–West tug-of-war, Middle East spillover, South Asian rivalries, and competition over transit corridors.
The lecture then moved to country-specific analysis of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, addressing their domestic politics, economic conditions, vulnerabilities, and foreign policy orientations. She examined the EU’s role in promoting stability and the shifting nature of Russia’s influence in the region—especially after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
In the final part, Dr. Bechná discussed opportunities, risks, and conditional pathways beyond the “No War, No Peace” paradigm. She emphasized that reduced Russian dominance could create space for multilateral peace efforts, but warned that external rivalries risk turning the region into a stage for proxy competition.
